Articles

Knowing the parameters of the infectious and epidemic process allows us to make a forecast and calculate the amount of exposure to infectious morbidity. On the basis of real data of registered cases of the disease, mathematical modelling of serial morbidity increases was carried out. The parameters and initial conditions of five viral infections (mumps, chickenpox, rubella, measles and viral hepatitis A) were determined. The reproductive number ranged at 2.4–5.3, while the oscillation am...